UKIP explains the confusion in the opinion polls.

Looking through the press, watching and listening to the broadcast media, there seems to be a certain confusion about what the opinion polls mean.

Yes, the three main Westminster parties are losing support. Yes, that support is going elsewhere.

But it isn't going to the BNP. They're flatlining on 4 and 5%. That's not enough to win them any seats at all. The support is going to us in UKIP. Given the variations in polls we're on anything from 15 to 19%, neatly matching the fall in support for the Lib Dem, Labour and Tory parties.

If you'd prefer this to come from a slightly less partisan source how about Anthony Wells of BPIX (and the "Polling Report" blog):

'The European results are also fascinating. The rise in support for UKIP over the past week suggests that people have followed Norman Tebbit's advice to punish the three main parties, and UKIP is the socially acceptable way to do so.

By contrast, the figures for the British National Party are stuck on about five per cent.'

That's what we think the story is. That there's a revulsion against both the professional political class and the racists and fascists of the BNP, which is why the UKIP vote is rising so strongly.

As Nigel Farage, UKIP leader, has been saying for some weeks, it's becoming ever more likely that Labour will come fourth in the euro elections.